Check out our two favorite bets for Tuesday’s MLB slate.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Time: 1: 10 p.m. EST Moneyline: White Sox -150, Guardians +128 Run Line: White Sox -1.5 (+108), Guardians -1.5 (-134) Total: Over 8 (-110), Under 8 (-110) Odds from BetRivers Sportsbook.
My pick: Chicago White Sox ML (-150)
I’ve profited from fading Lance Lynn all season, but it’s time to give him the respect he deserves. His xERA has always hovered around 3.50, and his numbers have come back down to earth. The White Sox have won his last three starts, and he hasn’t given up more than one run in each.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are starting Hunter Gaddis. He’s made one Major League appearance in his life and allowed eight runs over 3 ⅓ innings. He hasn’t had particularly strong Minor League stats, either.
Sometimes the last possible arms are called up from Triple-A for a make-up game, which is exactly what we have here. Bet the better pitcher.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Time: 3: 07 p.m. ET Moneyline: Rays +124, Blue Jays -146 Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-188), Blue Jays -1.5 (+155) Total: Over 7 (-118), Under 7 (-118) Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet 5 and Get $150.
My pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (+124)
The Blue Jays are a little over-inflated on the ML here.
They just picked up a few huge wins over the Rays and now sit 1.5 games ahead for the top Wildcard spot. Kevin Gausman is one of the best pitchers in baseball and gets the start at his home mound.
Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan tweaked something in a start against the Marlins and has missed about two weeks. The world seems to be hopping on the Blue Jays because of this news.
But let’s not forget this is arguably the best pitcher in the American League. He has a 2.20 ERA, and the Rays are 15-10 in his starts. The Rays should not be catching more than +120 on the ML with McClanahan on the mound, no matter what opposing team or pitcher he’s facing.
I’ll take the Rays.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
Time: 7: 20 p.m. EST Moneyline: Pirates +215, Mets -255 Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-105), Mets -1.5 (-115) Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+215)
The Mets are in trouble. They’ve been falling backward for a while and have recently surrendered the divisional lead to the Braves. They just became the first team since 1969 to be 35-plus games over .500 and get swept by a team 20+ games under .500 (Cubs).
I’m ready to pounce with one of my favorite underdog pitchers. Say what you want about Brubaker, but he’s only given up three runs in any start twice since July. And his 3.86 xFIP suggests some more positive regression is coming.
I think Carlos Carrasco can shut down the Pirates, but I’m not passing up the Pirates with this value.