When looking at the entire Week 3 betting slate, nine games have totals of 45 or under when you include Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football. We understand if you aren’t inclined to place a bet on either the totals, moneyline or spread.
However, every week there are excellent prop bets for players to place. We have five of them.
Let’s get on with it.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Travis Kelce Any Time Touchdown (-140) at DraftKings
With the spread now at 5.5 and the total at 50.5, the Chiefs project to score plenty of points in this game, and tight end Travis Kelce will be a massive contributor to that.
Kelce will be facing the Colts. He’s already given up five targets and has seen linebacker Zaire Franklin. Although it may seem small, he has only had to face O.J. Howard, of the Houston Texans, and Evan Engram (of the Jacksonville Jaguars) have been his closest opponents so far this season.
The Colts currently have Stephon Gilmore II and Kenny Moore II as cornerbacks.
Gilmore has been targeted a team-high 15 times but has only allowed 53.3% of those to be caught for 65 yards. On the other hand, Moore has 11 targets but has allowed nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
On one side, Gilmore will be capable of handling either Marquez Valdescantling-Scantling (or Mecole Hartman) from the Chiefs.
With this speedy team, the Colts must keep that in consideration.
All these elements are making Travis Kelce a great player. He was able to find the end zone twice.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Patrick Mahomes. Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+106) at Caesars Patrick Mahomes. More than 2.5 Passing Touchdowns. Are you looking for “+” cash? Sign us up.
We just talked about the insufficient coverage for Kelce, and the Colts overall.
When looking at the total of 50.5 and the Chiefs as 5.5-point favorites, this implies they’ll score around 30 points.
The Colts’ front seven has several great runners, such as E.J. Speed. Regardless, the Chiefs are not a team that runs the ball all that much, with just 38 attempts coming from three different running backs. So, it’s unlikely that Mahomes will pass for more than 2.5 touchdowns – it won’t come from his running game.
Gilmore cannot be in one spot at a given time. The Colts won’t be able to contain Kelce, despite the Chiefs speed.
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Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Baker Mayfield Longest Pass Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-115) at Caesars
Going up against the Browns in Week 1 and Giants in Week 2, Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield now faces his most formidable defensive challenge of the season.
No, although the Saints aren’t their usual bright-eyed selves this season, Mayfield is facing his most formidable defensive challenge.
In this game, Mayfield must contend with two massive headaches in the Saints secondary–cornerback Marshon Lattimore and safety Tyrann Mathieu.
While Mayfield hasn’t been great this season, he’s been his best when looking downfield 20+ yards.
This season, 12.3% of Mayfield’s attempts are on passes of 20+ yards downfield. This season, Mayfield has been fantastic. He completed four out of seven passes to 170 yards with two scores.
So, with a line of 33.5 yards, sure, Mayfield could do it, but here, we’re putting more trust in the Saints back-end coverage unit than the Browns or Giants.
The Saints’ pass rush will be able get in on Mayfield to do damage against the Panthers offense line. This includes on the edge against rookie tackle Ikem Ekwonu, and Taylor Moton.
While Mayfield is at home, the Panthers may be up against it.
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New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Joe Flacco Under 0.5 Interceptions (+105) at DraftKings
One of the best surprises during this 2022 season is seeing the somewhat resurgence of long-time Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco.
Through the first two games of the season, Flacco throws a ton, averaging over 50 attempts per game.
Flacco had one intercept this season. It’s still debatable if it should be counted against Flacco, as the intercept was on a player who ran over the middle in Week 1 against the Ravens. His receiver fell on that route.
However, Flacco was spectacular in Week 2. He threw for 307 yard and scored four touchdowns.
They face the Cincinnati Bengals at home this week, but have not picked a pass so far this season.
To some this may be the place for Flacco’s defense to win. Flacco isn’t giving us reason to believe he will be a turning machine against an inept coverage unit this week.
The guy has made 103 several times this season, and has not been in any turnover trouble.
We’re betting that Flacco will continue to play clean at this site.
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New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Carries (-115) at BetMGM
Sticking with the Jets and Bengals, a focal point of this offense should be running back Joe Mixon until quarterback Joe Burrow, and the passing game can get things going on the right track.
At 0-2 to start the year, Mixon is still getting plenty of action out of the backfield, averaging 23 carries a game–27 in Week 1 and 19 in Week 2.
The Jets aren’t a very good defense so it is up to the Bengals to make sure things get on track.
If the spread of -5 for the Bengals rings true, they should have command of the game, which puts Mixon in an even better position, game-script-wise, to clear this 19.5 rushing attempt total with ease.
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