MLB Home Run Leader Predictions, Betting Odds 2022


Vladimir Gurerro Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (+700)

As we said, predicting this award is tough and there hasn’t been a repeat winner since Nolan Arenado spil the title in both 2015 and 2016. We will still double our bet on Gurerro Jr., even knowing that he has the lowest payout and we also know this.

Gurerro Jr. was tied with Salvador Perez as the league leader in 2021. This feat came without any fluke. He was expected to slugge at. 594) was just a shade lower than his result (. 601) meaning his power was very legit.

His power was very legit because he is the son and grandson of one the greatest power hitters in history.

The only worry is that Gurerro Jr. has a tremendous eye, and is likely to walk more than the 86 base on balls he drew last season, but assuming that doesn’t take away too many at bats, he should pace for a minimum of 40 long balls this season once again.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (+1400)

We bet him as one of the people to watch in the MVP race (and hits leaders), so since we like both of those, it means we’re thinking he hits a lot of home runs, too.

Over the five season, Trout has been the MVP three times. Trout is averaging a home run every 11.7 at bats, but the problem is since 2016, the mos home runs he’s played in a single season is 136. In order to compete in this category, he needs at least 150 games played.

But at that rate, if he could have a normal 600 at-bat season, that’s more than 50 home runs. This is possible and there’s no reason to back the best player in baseball.

Joey Gallo, OF, New York Yankees (+1400)

Remember how we said Trout leads the MLB with one home run per 11.7 at bats over the last five years? Guess who’s second? That’s right – Joey Votto (12.1).

This was in Arlington Texas. It is an excellent hitters’ park but not as good as Yankee Stadium. The short porch in the right field was especially for lefties.

Gallo has hit 38 home runs or more in three of the last four full seasons. The advanced metrics going into 2022 have him pegged for 43 home runs, which likely wouldn’t lead the league, but if he can go on one or two hot streaks in the season, 50 is a very realistic possibility.

Yordan Alvarez, DH/OF, Houston Astros (+1500)

Yordan Alvarez is a certified power hitter. All the advanced metrics show that he does nothing but hit the ball hrad – his barrel rate was 91st percentile, his expected slugging percentage was 95th percentile and his hard-hit rate was 97th percentile.

He can hit home runs to all fields, with 22 of his 35 last season either going to straight away centerfield or the opposite direction.

He’s played just 233 games (that’s almost exactly a season-and-a-half) and he’s already belted 61 home runs. It’s a pace just beyond 41 home runs per season and he’s only been getting better as the seasons go on.

Franmil Reyes, OF, Cleveland Guardians (+2000)

We thought about a number of players here with our longshot. Eloy Jimenez paced at a 40-home run clip last season and could have potential to break out after his injury.

Kris Bryant is 25:1 odds, has hit 38 home runs in a season before and now will be going to Coors Field for 81 games a year where the ball flies at a ridiculous rate. But in the end we chose Franmili Reyes, a Guardians outfielder. He is perhaps the most raw power player in the game.

Reyes played just 115 games last year and still hit 30 long balls (that paces out to 40 home runs should he stay healthy for 150). Although he’s only in his fourth season, his exit velocity is always at the top five percent. If Reyes is healthy for 90 percent of the season, he will finish in the top five in home runs – and has every possibility to pace the league.

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