This is a crazy weekend for baseball. The playoff race is underway, but not all spots are filled.
There’s still value in the betting markets. Here are my top three picks for Saturday’s MLB lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Time: 7: 35 p.m. ET Moneyline: Cardinals -205, Pirates +175 Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (-120), Pirates +1.5 (+100) Total: Over 8 (+100), Under 8 (-120) Odds from DraftKings. Sign up and get a $1000 deposit bonus!
My pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+175)
The Pirates have been an undervalued team all season. It is important to place your money on the potential of their young pitchers.
JTBrubaker is a good example of this, particularly in the second half. Brubaker’s ERA was under 4, despite a difficult start against Atlanta. 00 and a FIP under 3. 00 in-between mid-June and now. In-between mid-June and now, he shut down Boston in seven innings. The Blue Jays were held to two runs more than six.
The Cardinals have a great offensive record. They are still throwing Jack Flaherty at the plate, as he is still recovering from an injury. Flaherty’s ERA is 4. 15 ERA but a 5. 15 xERA since returning from injury, and his sample size is small enough to indicate huge negative regression. I’ll be taking a shot against the Pirates on this huge plus-money line. Brubaker will pitch the batter, Flaherty is the question mark.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Time: 8: 40 p.m. ET Moneyline: Dodgers -145, Padres +135 Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105), Padres +1.5 (-125) Total: Over 8 (-105), Under 8 (-115) Odds from DraftKings. Sign up and get a $1000 deposit bonus!
My pick: Under 8 (-115)
Blake Snell has been a mediocre pitcher since joining San Diego. After winning the Cy Young award with Tampa Bay, he has not lived up to his hype.
However, Snell is a Dodger killer.
Snell had a long career. 76 ERA against the Dodgers. He’s struck out 45 dodgers in just 30 2/3 innings against them, good for a ridiculous 13.2 K/9. Snell has been more successful in L.A. lately than anyone else.
Maybe it’s the Dodgers being slightly more aggressive against southpaws that righties. Maybe Snell has just their number.
The Dodgers face Julio Urias. Urias has risen up the NL Cy Young leaderboards after a remarkable second half. His ability to shut down the San Diego team that was in decline should not be a problem.
I see this as a low-scoring match.
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
Time: 9: 10 p.m. ET Moneyline: Braves -130, Mariners +110 Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+135), Mariners +1.5 (-155) Total: Over 7 (+105), Under 7 (-125) Odds from DraftKings. Sign up and get a $1000 deposit bonus!
My pick: Atlanta Braves ML (-130)
I don’t buy it with George Kirby. The statistics on his batted balls are not very impressive. Although his stuff is improving, are he prepared to take on the best lineups in baseball?
Yesterday, the Braves took first in the NL East. The Braves will defend their title with the help of their ace at the plate. Max Fried was a great pitcher this season. He pitched to a 2. 48 ERA while accumulating 4.9 fWAR.
The Mariners are an excellent team but it’s a simple pick to take one of the top pitchers in the National League and a young righty. The Braves are my choice.