MLB Picks, September 21


We’re approaching the final stretch of games in the MLB season. Two weeks remain until the end of regular season.

Let’s have some fun with the final stretch of serious betting on baseball until April next year. Here are my top three bets on today’s MLB lineup.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

Time: 6: 40 p.m. ET Moneyline: Astros -125, Rays +115 Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+135), Rays +1.5 (-164) Total: Over 7 (-115), Under 7 (-115) Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.Bet $5 and get $150

My pick: Houston Astros ML (-125)

Lance McCullers jr. is one of my favorite pitchers to back. Although he has been out of action for the majority of the season, he still managed to produce Cy Young-level pitching.

McCullers might be on the verge of that stretch, with a 2. 34 ERA over his first six starts this season. Although he’s likely to experience some regression in the future, he still has enough stuff to compete with an above-average Rays team.

I don’t believe Houston will slow down now that they have clinched this division. Shane McClanahan pitched the final innings for the Astros, beating the Rays by 5-0. In the opening two games, the Astros beat Tampa 9 to 0. The Astros bullpen leads MLB in reliever ERA over the last two weeks (1.30).

Houston wins tonight again against the aging Corey Kluber.

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Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

Time: 7: 10 p.m. ET Moneyline: Guardians +105, White Sox -130 Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-190), White Sox -1.5 (+155) Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Get a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet!

My pick: Chicago White Sox ML (-130)

It’s time to believe in Lance Lynn again. His ERA is 2. 13 ERA and his K-BB% has jumped over 10 percentage points in the second half. In seven consecutive starts, he has allowed no more than two runs and pitched at least six innings each time.

Triston McKinzie is an excellent pitcher. However, the White Sox have a better team. The Guardians are among the lowest-five in terms of exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate. I have never believed that. Meanwhile, the White Sox rank sixth in wRC+ over the last 30 days (116).

The White Sox are in the mix for the division, with two wins over the Guardians. We’ll see if the White Sox are determined enough to make it happen today.

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

Time: 8: 40 p.m. ET Moneyline: Giants -135, Rockies +115 Run Line: Giants -1.5 (+115), Rockies +1.5 (-135) Total: Over 9.5 (-115), Under 9.5 (-105) Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Sign-up to get a $1,000 deposit bonus.

My pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-135)

I don’t know what happened to German Marquez, but he is not the same pitcher as he was the past few seasons. His ground-ball rate has dropped by almost six points year-over-year, and his Coors Field ERA has ballooned to 6.78.

Logan Webb is a great ground-ball pitcher. His sinker-changeup-slider combination has forced the second-highest ground-ball rate in the Majors this season.

This is huge for pitching at Coors Field. If you don’t have the ball in the air, it’s impossible to hit the ball out of the park.

The Rockies have posted the worst wRC+ of any MLB over the past month (72) and the Giants have a top-10 bullpen during the last two weeks (3. 25 reliever ERA).

I’ll accept those odds.

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