MLB Picks, September 22


Thursdays are generally rest days in Major League Baseball, with many teams traveling for their next weekend series.

We’re lucky enough to have 13 games to watch and wager on tonight. Here are my top three picks for tonight’s slate. Two of them were underdogs.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Time: 7: 05 p.m. ET Moneyline: Brewers -156, Reds +132 Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+105), Reds +1.5 (-126) Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105) Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.Bet $5 and get $150

My pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+132)

Hunter Greene is inconsistent. Greene can be a great rookie pitcher when he is under control and in his zone. His young team with Nick Lodolo is a formidable one and there’s a bright future on the Cincinnati pitching mound.

Greene is home to some of the most impressive stuff in the league. His fastball sits at 99mph on average and regularly hits 100mph, and he pairs it with a slider that has posted a -4 Run-Value and a 38.3% Whiff rate.

This play is mostly a fade by the Brewers. Milwaukee is continuing to slide offensively, and Brandon Woodruff has done just fine, despite coming off eight shutout innings in the Yankees’ series. There’s value in the Reds’ moderate-plus money. This is especially true since they have won their last two games.

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Time: 7: 40 p.m. ET Moneyline: Blue Jays -120, Rays +100 Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+140), Rays +1.5 (-165) Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105) Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Sign up today and get $1,000 Risk-Free bet.

My pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (+100)

It’s always a smart move to back the Rays as a home underdog. Jose Berrios is my favorite player.

Berrios has posted a 4. 99 ERA this season and backed it up with a 5. 20 xERA. According to Baseball Reference, Berrios is less efficient than a replacement-level starter (-0.1).

Tampa will probably go with a bullpen-heavy approach to today’s game, which is fantastic considering that the Rays currently have 3. 15 reliever ERA over the last month. They’re also top-10 in wRC+ in September and are looking to bounce back after getting swept by Houston.

I’ll take this bet.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Time: 10: 10 p.m. ET Moneyline: Diamondbacks +180, Dodgers -210 Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125), Dodgers -1.5 (+105) Total: Over 7 (-115), Under 7 (-105) Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Sign-up to get a $1,000 deposit bonus.

My pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+180)

No team has been more profitable to bet on than Arizona this season. As huge underdogs with plus-money, the Snakes have just won back-to-back Dodger Stadium games.

I’d like them to do it today. Zac Gallen has posted an 1. 29 ERA over his last 12 starts. He’s allowed 39 hits and 17 walks over his last 77 innings (. 72 WHIP).

HTML2_ The Dodgers have Julio Urias, who is also a Cy Young nominee. The Dodgers are able to pack it in. Last night, they started Austin Barnes, Hanser Albo and Miguel Vargas at the bottom. They are ready to take care of the guys and move on to the playoffs. We’ll profit from that by placing bets against them.

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