MLB Picks, September 3


There’s a full slate of college football going on, but there’s always more money to be made. Turn on the second screen to add my favorite MLB value betting tips to your card.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants

Time: 4: 05 p.m. EST Moneyline: Phillies (-125), Giants (+105) Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+130), Giants +1.5 (-150) Total: Over 8.5 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115) Odds from DraftKings. Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus here.

My pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (+105 | Play to +100)

The Giants creamed the Phillies last night and have now stolen four of the last five matchups against them, including three of four in 2022.

Go get’em again Giants.

Jakob Juns has been a pitcher that I have always been fascinated by. Junis is a West Coast pitcher who has transformed the West Coast after years as a Kansas City meatballer. It’s not surprising that the Giants have fixed Kevin Gausman.

Junis swapped his four-seam to a sinker, and began relying more on his slider. He’s on pace for a career-low walk rate (4.7%) and a career-lowe ERA (4.04). His xERA stands at 3. 85 and his xFIP is 3. 66, meaning he’s due for positive regression.

I don’t like Noah Syndergaard. He has lowered his batted ball statistics but lost his speed. Literally, his fastball velocity has dropped almost five ticks since his peak. His xERA has risen to over 4. 50, meaning he’s due for regression, and his 4. 40 ERA since joining the Phillies indicates he’s already seeing some.

The Phillies are a huge advantage in offense. The matchup in the defense and bullpen is not a draw, but I enjoy the Giants’ home advantage. Sharp money has pushed the line towards San Francisco, so I will play them at any price.

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Time: 6: 40 p.m. EST Moneyline: Rockies (+105), Reds (-125) Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (-190), Red -1.5 (+160) Total: Over 8 (-120), Under 8 (+100) Odds from DraftKings. Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus here.

My pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-125 | Play to -132)

Once upon a time, German Marquez was an ace. His elite home/road splits were fuelled by his pitching at Coors Field. However, he was able to win games at high altitudes because of his ground-ball rate.

It’s all gone downhill for Marquez. Marquez’s ground-ball rate has fallen four points over the past year and helped to fuel 4. 97 ERA. This would be Lodolo’s highest score since his rookie year.

Nick Lodolo still has much to prove. But he also has some disgusting stuff. His fastball sits in the high 90s, and his curveball is forcing a ridiculous 48% Whiff rate this season. Against a Rockies team that has posted a 75 wRC+ in August – second worst in baseball – I’ll take Lodolo’s stuff.

The Reds are marginally more offensive. They’ve also posted a top-10 reliever ERA over the past month (3. 32), which means Lodolo and his relief stats could keep the Rockies to a low number.

Besides, the Reds are 17-21 in the second half. Their April record is not accurate.

The Rockies are 13-26 in that same timeframe.

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Time: 7: 15 p.m. EST Moneyline:Cubs +175, Cardinals -205 Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-120), Cardinals -1.5 (+100) Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) Odds from DraftKings. Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus here.

My pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+100 | Playable to -110)

Did you know Adam Wainwright was drafted into professional baseball the same season Tom Brady was drafted into the NFL?

That’s how many years he has been at it. His 3. 09 ERA this season and the Cardinals are 5-2 in his last seven starts.

This is also due to the Redbirds bats getting hotter. This trend isn’t going to slow down.

Drew Smyly, a lefty who relies heavily on curveballs, is soft-tossing. Cardinals boast a. 868 OPS and a 143 wRC+ against southpaws over the past month – both best in baseball – alongside a top-10 mark in Weighted Curveball Runs Created (7.5).

This is going to turn into a bloodbath. I’ll play the Cardinals -1.5, which you can get at +100 on DraftKings.

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