MLB Picks, September 4


Sunday is always a great baseball day. You can find plenty of baseball games on the day, but there isn’t much else until next week when NFL will be starting.

Plus There’s a lot of value in the game. Here are my top three MLB betting tips for today.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Time: 4: 10 p.m. EST Moneyline: Brewers +135, Diamondbacks -155 Run Line: Brewers +1.5 (-165), Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105) Odds from DraftKings. Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus here.

My pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-155)

Zac Gallen is unstoppable right now. He’s thrown 35 consecutive scoreless innings, striking out 39 batters over the time while walking just seven and allowing 14 hits. The Diamondbacks now have seven of Gallens’ last eight starts.

Gallen will face a Brewers team that is absolutely pathetic. The team has posted a 90 wRC+ over the past month while striking out over 25% of the time. In the interim, the Diamondbacks have been rolling according to their standards. They’ve posted a 103 wRC+ since August started while striking out at the league’s lowest rate, just 16.5% of the time. In a crazy turn of events, the Diamondbacks are 23-16 in the second half of the season.

They’ll be facing Jason Alexander, the Brewers worst pitcher with an ERA of close to 5. 00 this season. Considering the Brewers’ 19-19 record in the second half, I’m ready to fade them on Gallen day.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants

Time: 4: 05 p.m. EST Moneyline: Phillies +105, Giants -125 Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-190), Giants -1.5 (+160) Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) Odds from DraftKings. Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus here.

My pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-125)

The Giants have taken two of three from the Phillies so far, and get their ace on the mound for this Sunday matchup.

Carlos Rodon is, undoubtedly, the most outstanding pitcher in MLB this season. Only Kevin Gausman’s FanGraphs WAR has been greater than Rodon’s 4.9. Rodon has pitched over 150 innings with a 3. 03 ERA and a 2. 80 xERA that indicates further positive regression.

The Phillies don’t scare me. They’re too mercurial, are generally bad defensively, and have the league’s 24th-ranked reliever xFIP over the past month (4.34).

Ranger Suarez can also be mercurial. Suarez went from being a reliever last season to becoming a starter. However, he has always exceeded his metrics. Negative regression is a constant for him. Rodon should win the sweep.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Time: 2: 10 p.m. EST Moneyline: Twins +105, White Sox -125 Run Line: Twins +1.5 (-180), White Sox -1.5 (+155) Total: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110) Odds from DraftKings. Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus here.

My pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline (+105)

While the White Sox have come around recently, I’m ready to fade Lucas Giolito again. Giolito is a White Sox player who has not lived up to expectations.

Giolito’s ERA is north of 5. 25 this season. Although his expected metrics will be better than those of the previous season, he still has a 4. 17 xERA doesn’t make me overly excited for a guy who was once one of the best pitchers in the league.

The Twins lost three games in succession, but we must not forget the danger this team poses. Behind Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Luis Arraez, the Twins have posted the league’s seventh-highest wRC+ on the season (111).

Dylan Bundy’s ERA is 4. 53 ERA this season, but his xERA is below 4.00. Bundy has room to grow, but the offensive mismatch between the teams is too great not to notice.

Plus, With a victory on Sunday, the Twins could save their series against White Sox.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.