NFL Week 3 Picks


*) , , . . As we enter Week 3 of the NFL Season, it appears that this week could be less productive for offenses.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook eight games, including Thursday Night Football have combined totals less than 45.

These games might not have the same offensive outputs as we love but there is still a lot to be gained from these and all other games.

Below, you will find a 3-leg parlay that has +611 odds that spans the whole Sunday slate.

All odds are provided by DraftKings. Using our exclusive registration link, you can earn a $1,000 deposit bonus when you sign up today.

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Without wide receivers Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman, the Indianapolis Colts were totally inept on the road in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing miserably, 24-0.

This week, they host a Kansas City Chiefs team averaging over 35 points per game after dropping 44 in Week 1 and 27 in Week 2.

Defensivively, they still have great players. Grover Stewart plays run defense at the offensive line. DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paie rush the passer and E.J. Wilson are all linebackers. Speed is playing his best football.

While these players are great, a lot of their success came against the run game. This is not something that the Chiefs can rely upon. Their running backs are averaging just 19 carries a game as a unit.

The Colts’ cornerback Stephon Gilbert has not been as elite this season. He’s still good enough to play against Marquez ValdesScantling, Chiefs wide receiver.

The Chiefs might not be able to field a true world-beater such as Tyreek Hill, but Travis Kelce is the Colts’ tight end. The Chiefs don’t have the speed to focus on Kelce. This will cause problems for the defense, who has been stronger in protecting an area of the game that the Chiefs cannot do without.

For the Colts quarterback Matt Ryan continues to turn the ball over. He threw four interceptions in two games including three last week.

The absence of Pittman wasn’t a surprise, though, they did play the Jaguars.

Even with Pittman returning to the line-up, he’ll probably see plenty L’Jarius, who’s proven competent but will still lose some battles against Pittman.

This is an important part of the Colts’ offense. Darius Harris, a linebacker for the Chiefs, and Chirs Jones (defensive tackle) are two of the playmakers that the Chiefs can rely on to defend the run. Although the Chiefs are susceptible to running, they have the No. 17 run defense unit in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

Typically we would look at Chiefs vs. Colts, and say, “Well, Ryan in a shootout against Mahomes is a problem .”

But, as we saw last week, the Colts are going to keep running the ball, even if it’s down several scores.

The Colts will try to play early and often, and not allow Mahomes to have the ball. Although the Colts do not have anyone to replace Kelce, they will try to make it work.

Ryan’s tendency to make mistakes could prove costly down the stretch.

If this score were to be tied, we would lean the Colts. However, under these circumstances, we believe that the Chiefs will win seven points.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Even with a line of 40.5, we’ll take the under here.

These teams, particularly the Carolina Panthers’, have their offenses held back by quarterback play.

Panthers’ quarterback Baker Mayfield has been a problem for the offense. He is ranked 8th in league time to throw and his average target depth is 7.3 yards.

His average target depth is worrying because of the presence of Robby Anderson (D.J.) and Mayfield. Moore is a great downfield player. Mayfield doesn’t seem to be able to target that area as often as he should.

This week Mayfield faces a Saints defensive that isn’t their usual strong self when it comes to rushing the passer. However, against an offensive line with the Panthers weakest link through the first two weeks, this will be an opportunity for him to kick things off.

Mayfield will have to contend with Marshon Lattimore, cornerback, draping on Moore, and safety Tyrann Matieu interrupting many plays.

Though they’re at home, this feels like a 10-13 point day for them.

Winston is more aggressive when the Saints throw the ball downfield than he was when facing a blitz, or being hit.

All three interceptions against the Buccaneers in Week 2 were made when Winston wasn’t being blitzed or kept in the pocket.

Winston has to be more aggressive downfield without Alvin Kamara, who can sometimes prove to be an asset. He must correct any mistakes.

There are interesting matchups in the Saints offense. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry will face Panther cornerback Myles Hartsfield. However, fellow receiver Michael Thomas could have opportunities against Panthers cornerbacks Jaycee Johnson and Donte.

Winston should have some breathing room against the Saints’ offensive line, although he still makes mistakes even when under pressure.

Losing 20-10 last week, this is a game in which the Saints could be on the other side of this, winning 20-10.

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-105) at DraftKings

Of course, the major headline here is San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo starting the rest of the season after Trey Lance was diagnosed with a fractured ankle.

In his first start back, Jimmy G and the 49ers head into Denver to take on a Russell Wilson-led Broncos team that has struggled to open the year.

The most thrilling part of this matchup is in the trenches, running the passer.

The 49ers have two solid tackles in Mike McGlinchey and Trent Williams, but the Broncos have Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb. Chubb is one of the top pass rushers in league, particularly in Week 1 against Seahawks.

For the 49ers, they have Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam off the edge against Cameron Fleming and Garett Bolles, respectively.

However, as a whole, this 49ers defense has been great, limiting the Seahawks to just seven points. They allowed 19 in Chicago in Week 1, but the weather almost makes that game irrelevant from a data standpoint.

So far, Wilson has had trouble getting downfield passes completed this season.

Through the first two games, 17.8% of Wilson’s attempts have come on throws of 20+ yards, and he’s only completing 38.5% of those throws. All of these passes did not result in drops.

On throws of 10-19 yards, Wilson is just over 55%, but that’s a smaller sample size as it’s 12.3% of his attempts. Wilson isn’t playing great football right now. This could be that he’s gelling with a new offense, but against the 49ers in Week 3 of the season isn’t an ideal time to figure it out.

Javonte Wilkins has been the bright spot in this lackluster Broncos offensive. He has just 22 carries on the season but has 118 yards (5.4 yards per carry).

Giving just 1.5 points, the 49ers defense and Wilson’s less-than-stellar play spells a loss for the Broncos at Mile High.

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