Texas Derby Predictions, Picks, Odds (Lone Star Park)


Coming off a solid fourth-place finish behind the likes of Mo Donegal and Early Voting, A. P.’s Secret could be the one chosen as the favorite in a wide-open edition of the $300,000 Texas Derby on a holiday Monday at Lone Star Park.

The son of Cupid won two races and finished second in three of his previous starts. He then moved up to graded stakes, but had trouble in Grade 2 Fountain of Youth before he was able to win the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Chief is Strike Hard who beat him in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park back in December.

The Flashback colt finished seventh in the Grade 1 Florida Derby just two starts ago. However, he comes off an allowance win in South Florida last year and placed second to Simplification earlier in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.

Cover Me Up is another who should get plenty of attention in the 1 1/16-mile Texas Derby. Last time at Churchill Downs, the son of Mastery finished second to Creative Minister.

That performance was surprisingly disappointing when the one returned to finish a solid third in Preakness Stakes. Cover Me Up was first in or second four of his five last races.

It took Got Thunder five attempts to win his Southern California maiden. However, the son of Arrogate was competitive on dirt in each attempt against strong horses.

Texas Derby predictions and race analysis

A. P.’s secret This son of Cupid is a steady performer for Saffie Joseph Jr., and he continues to improve. He was a first-out winner in November at Gulfstream Park. His only disappointing result was when he got tangled in the Grade 2-Fountain of Youth.

He was chasing the Preakness winner Early Voting for the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He lost to him but he managed to stay on and finish fourth in an extremely competitive race.

He should enjoy the class drop and will be drawn for a great stalking trip outside. This horse is our top choice.

Strike Hard This horse is a clear threat. He has raced against the best horses in this field. Flashback’s son has been a good horse, winning three races at the flat mile. He was not up for the challenge in longer races.

The competition in this race is lighter than in the previous stakes attempt, however the impression is that the top choice has probably improved a lot since the last meeting. He is the most dangerous threat to the top choice.

Cover me Up This one is likely to pose the greatest danger to my top choice. He was trained by Richard Baltas. Although he was a good maiden winner at Santa Anita four times back, his first attempt against the winners was unsuccessful. However, since moving to Kentucky, he has ran two solid races.

In both races, he showed great speed and settled for the second-place finish. He finished second in both the first and the third, just behind Creative Minister who is one the most promising stars of the division. Although he should have been out early, I think it is likely that he will be passing in the stretch and not going all the the way.

Got Thunder Although it doesn’t look like he did a great job breaking his maiden, some of the defeats were against very tough horses and he was still competitive.

The son of Arrogate ran well in each of the four dirt races and was able to finish the race last time on the main track. His tactical speed is excellent and he’s a potential candidate for improvement. He is a good choice for the Texas Derby, although he will not be used in exotics.

Win The Day

This son of Midshipman is the first of two horses from Doug O’Neill. He has only one victory in his four career starts. Two of the four came to dirt, with one easy win. He was last asked to race against big boys in Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

He never threatened to finish ahead of any other horse in the 6-horse field. Although he is in a lower class, I don’t think he will be dangerous. I do not know enough about the spot to say if I was able to see enough information there that I believe he could win another stakes race.


This Steve Asmussen-trained son of Pioneerof the Nile broke through last time with a nice allowance score at Oaklawn Park. This is a sign that he’s maturing and learning to be a better horse, having shown talent in the five races.

Fifth behind the good horses of Grade 3 Lecomte in January, I think he might be more prepared to face stakes-caliber horses this year. On Monday, the odds are in his favor. He is likely to be present in my ticket and I will use his name in any of them.

King Ottoman This well-bred, Curlin son is second to come from Steve Asmussen’s barn. He is still a young maiden, but he has the potential to become a good horse. He has competed well and has had to face some good horses.

He certainly deserves to gain more experience. However, I’m not prepared to support him as he will be running against much more experienced competitors at Lone Star Park on Monday.

Fowler Blue

The second from the barn of Doug O’Neill, this Curlin to Mischief gelding has won only 2-of-10 lifetime and both wins came against claiming horses. This will be his most difficult test. He was fourth in the three stakes attempts before.

Most recently, he was a disappointing fifth in an allowance Santa Anita race. He is difficult to recommend for this location.

How to Watch the Texas Derby

Texas Derby Race Information What Texas Derby Location Lone Star Park Time Monday, May 30 — 8: 01 pm Eastern time How to Watch TVG Purse $300,000

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